The Predictive Daily #121124

WEDNESDAY TREND
December is data dump month: What you need to know 

The housing market buzz is heating up, and everyone seems to have an opinion. Here are five recent takes from “pros” about what’s next for real estate:

Lawrence Yun, NAR: “We anticipate a 9% increase in home sales for 2025, signaling a significant recovery in the U.S. housing market.”

Zillow: “Expect to see more sales and only modest home value growth in 2025 as the market slowly becomes unstuck.”

Larry Summers: “Trump’s proposed policies could significantly heighten inflationary pressures.”

Brian Levitt, Invesco: “Inflation data is within the Fed’s comfort zone, supporting the case for a December rate cut.”

Quincy Krosby, LPL Financial: “Expectations remain that the Fed will be discussing ‘when’—not ‘if’—to initiate its rate cut cycle.”

But let’s be real: expert opinions often come with a bias that can leave you shouting, “Fake news!” The truth is, data only matters when it can be applied to your individual circumstances.

Two principles for reading market data

1. Remove Emotion - Numbers don’t care about feelings. Whether someone’s hyped about bitcoin or space exploration, focus on the facts.

2. Stick to Basics

   Keep it simple. For example:

   • Higher borrowing costs = fewer people taking loans

   • Higher living costs = less spending on travel

Key reports to be watching for this December

• CPI (Dec 11): Tracks inflation trends in goods and services

• PPI (Dec 12): Offers an inflation perspective from producers

• Retail Sales (Dec 17): Reveals consumer spending patterns

• FOMC Meeting (Dec 17-18): Updates on interest rates and policy shifts

• GDP (Dec 19): A snapshot of the economy’s overall health

Stay informed, but don’t overthink it—data is your ally when you stick to fundamentals!

COMMUNITY BENEFITS
The Predictive Partners & Opportunities

• 🌄 Ready to buy or sell in the Smokies? Tired of analyzing and ready to get to action? Get connected agents who understand STR investing today!

• 🛏️ STR Furniture from top suppliers. In need of new furniture? Work with our design partner to access commercial grade STR furniture near wholesale rates.

TUESDAY TREND
AirBNB remains committed to experiences in 2025  

Another STR trend email about the need for guest experiences. Honestly, I feel like I’ve been talking about this too much. The problem is that, other than the data & analytics tracking we do, a lot of the talk in the STR industry is focused around guest experiences and the need for operators to create a plan for personalized memory-making!

I’m not surprised, though. The top-performing property I’m associated with in any way is not an oversized cabin that sleeps fifty or a honeymooner’s studio—it’s a CAMPER I first started renting in June! Right on the creek with a cozy fire pit and all the amenities needed to craft an unforgettable experience. Don’t believe me? Check out my camper below, and it won’t take long to understand why all the hype from the major players is around experiences.

I’m amazed at how my camper is performing, and I believe its success is directly tied to people’s desire for meaningful experiences. Check out my property’s numbers over the past 6 months:

• Gross Revenue: $23,518.25

• ADR: $116.81

• Occupancy Rate: 89%

• Avg. Length of Stay: 2.71

Can you imagine the data companies like Airbnb and VRBO have regarding the impact of experiences? Experiences aren’t going anywhere, and as STR investors, we need a plan to incorporate these little touches that elevate the guest experience and drive revenue.

Here are 3 things I’m planning on doing going into 2025:

Collaborating with local experts

People visit the Smokies for the outdoors, the history, and the charm. Why not team up with local guides or artisans? I’m reaching out to hiking tour leaders, moonshine makers, and craft enthusiasts to recommend their services and even feature them in my listings. If they win, I win too.

Crafting exclusive experiences

My camper already has a great location, but I’m adding extra magic. I’m planning on offering private stargazing kits (blankets, a telescope, and hot cocoa) and organizing campfire storytelling sets that parents can use at night time. Guests are craving unique, personal touches—they’re simple to set up and make all the difference.

Creating booking bundles

I’m working on bundling stays with experiences to make planning easier for guests. A “Creekside Escape” package might include a two-night stay, a guided sunrise hike, and a local wine and shine tasting. It’s convenient for the guest and increases revenue for me.

As STR operators, we don’t just provide a place to stay—we create a stage for lifelong memories. Experiences are the future, and the time to act is now. Let’s embrace it and take our properties to the next level!

MONDAY TREND
A return to normal for Smokies STR market in 2025?  

It’s official: we’ve now spent as much time in the post-pandemic housing slump as we did in the pandemic boom—two and a half years in a rollercoaster market. So, is 2025 the year we finally step off this ride and find our footing? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Demand is the name of the game

Here’s the deal: demand drives everything. When demand is low, time on market drags, inventory piles up, and absorption rates (hello, 8.97 months in November) creep higher. But with pending sales up 20%, there’s a flicker of hope that things might be heating up. HousingWire speculates that post-election clarity could have buyers back in action. Will that momentum last?

Pending sales are looking good

The rise in pending sales(20% in November) and an uptick in mortgage applications are giving pros in the Smoky Mountain market a reason to smile. A healthy surplus of inventory means there’s plenty of room for deals to close—if buyers keep stepping up. Could this be the start of something steady? Fingers crossed.

Is “normal” in sight?

Here’s the kicker: the road back to normal depends on sustained demand. Sure, improving interest rates are nice, but they’re not game-changers for cash flow. Plus, lenders with big Smoky Mountain investments are in no rush to release more capital. They’re playing it cool, waiting for inventory levels and time on market to shape up before making their next move.

So, what’s happening 2025? Think “slow and steady” rather than “wild and explosive.” A little momentum here, a little optimism there—but don’t expect fireworks. For now, we’re settling into a market that’s inching its way back to something resembling normal. Stay tuned.