The Predictive Daily #12924

Author

Justin Beasley
December 09, 2024

MONDAY TREND
A return to normal for Smokies STR market in 2025?  

Will 2025 finally be a ‘normal’ housing market?

The slight growth in new listings, seeing a slight growth in home sales is an optimistic view of the housing market for 2025.

www.housingwire.com/articles/will-2025-finally-be-a-normal-housing-market

It’s official: we’ve now spent as much time in the post-pandemic housing slump as we did in the pandemic boom—two and a half years in a rollercoaster market. So, is 2025 the year we finally step off this ride and find our footing? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Demand is the name of the game

Here’s the deal: demand drives everything. When demand is low, time on market drags, inventory piles up, and absorption rates (hello, 8.97 months in November) creep higher. But with pending sales up 20%, there’s a flicker of hope that things might be heating up. HousingWire speculates that post-election clarity could have buyers back in action. Will that momentum last?

As we look at 2025, it seems there is late year momentum, maybe it’s from buyers who waited until after the election and are now ready to act? Will that momentum continue into the spring? Hard to say, but like the slight growth in new listings, seeing a slight growth in home sales is an optimistic view of the housing market.

Housingwire

Pending sales are looking good

The rise in pending sales(20% in November) and an uptick in mortgage applications are giving pros in the Smoky Mountain market a reason to smile. A healthy surplus of inventory means there’s plenty of room for deals to close—if buyers keep stepping up. Could this be the start of something steady? Fingers crossed.

Is “normal” in sight?

Here’s the kicker: the road back to normal depends on sustained demand. Sure, improving interest rates are nice, but they’re not game-changers for cash flow. Plus, lenders with big Smoky Mountain investments are in no rush to release more capital. They’re playing it cool, waiting for inventory levels and time on market to shape up before making their next move.

So, what’s happening 2025? Think “slow and steady” rather than “wild and explosive.” A little momentum here, a little optimism there—but don’t expect fireworks. For now, we’re settling into a market that’s inching its way back to something resembling normal. Stay tuned.

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